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Read more: Bank of America identifies 3 indicators that could make or break the stock market this summer – and warns they're all deteriorating fast, Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our. He has been ranked as Bloomberg's most accurate forecaster of US economic data for eight years in a row. Trump boasts the economy reached historic heights during his first term. A recovery to the pre-pandemic level won't happen overnight, Barraud said. Top Stocks to Buy in 2020; Stock Market News; Retirement Getting Started. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Here are 9 charts showing how it stacks up to the Obama and Bush presidencies. In addition to the election, Barraud said he sees the upcoming earnings season and a second wave of COVID-19 as events that could pull markets lower. Even if there is a vaccine by the end of the year, it likely wouldn't be distributed until 2021, leaving a long time for the US to grapple with the virus. The S&P 500 no longer represents the stock market The 505 stocks in the index come from a range of sectors that used to have a proportionate weight in … The Stock Market Could Crash This Quarter, but Here's Why You Shouldn't Stress Over It A market downturn is more than possible in the coming months, but … The pandemic slammed the US economy, putting millions of Americans out of work and leading to a nearly 5% slump in gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2020… During March 2020, stock markets worldwide saw a significant decline. "At this point people look a little optimistic about EPS for next year," Barraud said, adding that analysts and investors were expecting a V-shaped recovery and weren't pricing in risks, such as increased taxes, that could come as a result of the presidential election in November. Commerce Policy | The US economy has a long road to recovery ahead from the shock of the coronavirus pandemic, and that could weigh on the stock market's epic rally, according to Christophe Barraud, the chief economist of the broker-dealer Market Securities. And because a COVID-19 vaccine isn't likely to be distributed in the US until next year, there is "still some time for a second wave, which would be very damaging," he said. The pandemic slammed the US economy, putting millions of Americans out of work and leading to a nearly 5% slump in gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2020. "We think the most likely outcome remains a 10% correction in the broader index led by the beneficiaries before the recovery and bull market continues," analysts led … Barraud has a track record of getting it right. "My advice would be to be cautious from August — maybe take some protection," Barraud said. "The market could react because at this point there is no room for disappointment," he said. GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 13 stocks that are poised to crush the market within the next 2 weeks as earnings season gets underway, Bank of America identifies 3 indicators that could make or break the stock market this summer – and warns they're all deteriorating fast, Morgan Stanley details 3 trades set to outperform as investors grow more comfortable with a Democratic sweep », Black franchisees allege 'pipeline of discrimination' at McDonald's in class action lawsuit, following another racial-discrimination lawsuit from ex-franchisees », US stocks climb on record GDP growth and encouraging jobless claims data, Here's why the record-shattering GDP report obscures the fact that the US economic recovery still has much further to go, US GDP surged a record 33% in the 3rd quarter as the economy reopened, roughly double the next-biggest jump, A top Wall Street investment strategist breaks down how to invest heading into an unpredictable US election — and what to do if the outcome is contested, Guggenheim's Minerd says that the stock market's calm is merely the eye of a storm — and that rising political and economic turmoil will lead to a big move lower. LSB Industries and North American Construction among Energy/Materials gainers; Pacific Ethanol and Sierra Metals among losers, Global stocks jump after Pelosi sets Tuesday deadline for US stimulus vote; China posts strong economic data. But that could change, he said. Market focus could shift in August to look more closely at the presidential election and what that means in terms of fiscal policy, trade policy, and more. Disclaimer | © 2020 Insider Inc. and finanzen.net GmbH (Imprint). Made In NYC | He's also been named a top economist for the euro area since 2015 and for China since 2017. The issue investors now face is whether the pull-back represents a buying opportunity or is the harbinger of more to come. Here are 4 ways to pivot your portfolio now. He also said the market structure had changed, with some of the rebound in the second quarter driven by heavy buying by retail investors, hedge funds, and commodity-trading advisers. And economists expect it'll get worse: They've forecast that US GDP will slump by more than 30% in the second quarter before returning to growth at the end of the year. "It will take a long time for life to return to normal," Barraud told Business Insider. This could further fuel uncertainties about the employment situation in the US and stocks going forward, Barraud said. Here are 4 ways to pivot your portfolio now. Investors should prepare for a "downside correction" in equity markets in September or October, according to one market strategist. As the US economy recovers, Barraud sees much uncertainty that could lead to a correction — a drop of 10% or more — for stocks from August to November. That could lead people to take some profits, and market structure might revert to what it looked like before the coronavirus pandemic, Barraud said. If the historical data suggests that some form of correction is likely coming… Stock quotes by finanzen.net. He said that because of this, the US won't return to its fourth-quarter 2019 real GDP level until at least 2022, adding that for some European countries a recovery won't happen until 2023. "Markets are not pricing in a lot of risk," Barraud said, adding that this may be because of dovish fiscal policy or the potential for another round of stimulus in the short term as countries deal with the virus. This would thwart the market's recent momentum; the S&P 500 just posted its best quarter since 1998, and the Dow Jones industrial average had its best quarter since 1987. Read more: JPMORGAN: The coronavirus crisis has decimated one of the safest defenses against stock-market crashes. JPMORGAN: The coronavirus crisis has decimated one of the safest defenses against stock-market crashes.

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